๐ Nasdaq Volatility Forecasting with GARCH
Project Overview This project uses a GARCH(1,1) model to forecast the future daily volatility of the Nasdaq Composite Index (^IXIC). The goal is to estimate how much price movement (volatility) to expect in the coming days, which is useful for risk management, trading strategies, and options analysis. The project includes: Downloading daily Nasdaq data from Yahoo Finance Calculating log returns Fitting a GARCH(1,1) model Forecasting 30 days of volatility Comparing model forecasts with historical rolling volatility Wrapping the workflow into a reusable Python class Key Outputs โ Nasdaq Price vs. Rolling Volatility (Last 250 Days) Rolling 30-day volatility spikes during market drops. Calm price trends are usually matched by low volatility. ...